How Biden’s State Of The Union Affects 2024 White House Odds
Here’s a look at how betting odds for the 2024 presidential election changed on the heels of the speech.
What Happened: Based on the results of the Super Tuesday primary elections, Biden’s odds of becoming the next president increased after the results were tallied.
His odds also improved after Thursday’s State of the Union speech. Former President Donald Trump, whom Biden referred to in the speech only as “predecessor,” also saw his odds improve.
Polymarket, which calls itself “the world’s largest prediction market,” offers betting on several political outcomes, including who might win the overall 2024 presidential election. Users deposit to Polygon (CRYPTO: MATIC) using USDC (CRYPTO: USDC). They can deposit with Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) or from a crypto account. Each betting market cashes out at $1 for the option that ends up being the winner.
Here are the current odds for who betters think will win the 2024 presidential election per Polymarket.
- Trump: 54%
- Biden: 33%
- Robert F. Kenndy Jr.: 4%
- Michelle Obama: 3%
- Gavin Newsom: 3%
- Kamala Harris: 2%
Benzinga last reported that the odds saw Trump at 53% and Biden at 32% just days ago. Obama and Harris each lost one percentage point, which likely led to an increase for the frontrunners.
Along with gaining a percentage point, Biden was the biggest winner in terms of dollars wagered on his win, going from $5.3 million to $5.5 million. Obama and Trump each gained only $100,000 over the last two days.
Related Link: Biden Calls For Cannabis Reform In State Of The Union, A Historic First: ‘No One Should Be Jailed For Simply Using It’
Why It’s Important: Polymarket odds show Trump as the favorite to win the 2024 presidential election. That falls in line with what most election polls are also showing.
Odds for the president on Bet365 shared by Covers show Trump as the -120 favorite to win the 2024 election, with Biden following closely behind at +187.
Both candidates saw their betting odds improve since Super Tuesday, when they were +100 and +225 respectively.
Trump being -120 is the lowest odds since the last presidential election for any candidate.
Biden’s State of the Union appears to have won over some voters. A dominant Super Tuesday, when Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips dropped out of the race, also helped.
Bettors will likely continue to be nervous about backing Biden until he secures the Democratic nomination and concerns over a different candidate replacing him mitigate.
