Gravita India shares jump 30% in four sessions; This analysts sees another 30% upside

The price target implies a potential upside of 29% from Tuesday’s closing levels, implying a 23 times price-to-earnings ratio for financial year 2026 estimates.

Over the next three years, Kotak is forecasting Gravita’s revenue and net profit to grow at a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 20% and 22% respectively. It also sees the potential for a Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) of over 20% resulting in a multi-year compounding growth.

The brokerage believes that the Indian Lead recycling industry is on the verge of rapid formalisation but is dominated by unorganised players as more than 65% market share is with unorganised players.

Within the organised space, Gravita is the market leader with a 6% share.

India’s Battery Waste Management Policy of 2022 is a revolutionary policy and can significantly shrink the unorganised market to 25% and 10% by financial year 2028 and 2033, according to Kotak’s note.

Gravita plays a key role in the circular economy supply chain and its expansion plans outside of Lead gives strong visibility on growth and diversification, the brokerage said.

Volatility in unhedged commodities, changes in regulations / duty structure against scrap and significant investments by battery OEMs in recycling are some of the key risks to Kotak’s estimates.

Shares of Gravita India are trading 10% higher at ₹1,016.70. The stock has risen 30% over the last four trading sessions and has gained 120% during the last 12 months.