GDP Growth Likely To Be 6.2 pc In Q4; 7% In FY24, Says Rating Agency

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GDP Growth Likely To Be 6.2% In Q4; 7% In FY24, Says Rating Agency

The Reserve Bank, in its monetary policy review in April, projected GDP growth for 2023-24 at 7 per cent. As regards the economic growth in the current fiscal, Sinha said the GDP is expected to expand at 7.1 per cent.

India’s robust expansion was bolstered by a substantial increase in new business, supported by favourable demand conditions and positive market dynamics.
India Ratings and Research expects the country’s GDP growth rate for the March quarter at 6.2 per cent and around 6.9-7 per cent for the 2023-24 fiscal, its principal economist Sunil Kumar Sinha said. The GDP numbers for the fourth quarter (January-March 2024) and the provisional estimates for the 2023-24 fiscal are scheduled to be released by the government on May 31.
The Indian economy grew 8.2 per cent in the June quarter, 8.1 per cent in the September quarter and 8.4 per cent in the December quarter of 2023-24.
India GDP Predictions
“We are expecting the fourth quarter growth to be 6.2 per cent and the overall GDP growth for FY24 to be around 6.9-7 per cent,” Sinha told PTI in an interview.
He said the growth rate in the first two quarters benefited from a low base, though the 8.4 per cent growth rate in the third (October-December 2023) quarter was surprising.

“When we analyse the data then what is visible is the wedge between the GVA and GDP. A large impetus to Q3 GDP has come from higher tax collection, but this phenomenon is unlikely to be repeated in the fourth quarter. The wedge between the GDP and GVA is unlikely to be repeated in the fourth quarter,” he noted.
RBI On India GDP
GDP is the total value of goods and services produced in a given period. GVA is GDP minus net taxes (gross tax collection minus subsidy).
The Reserve Bank, in its monetary policy review in April, projected GDP growth for 2023-24 at 7 per cent. As regards the economic growth in the current fiscal, Sinha said the GDP is expected to expand at 7.1 per cent.
“Even if we set aside the tax component, the momentum witnessed in the first and second quarters has continued in the subsequent quarters, and the likelihood is that momentum will continue in FY25,” he added.

The services sector, he said, will continue the momentum, led by construction and electricity, while mining and industrial output will be laggard.
“The prediction of above normal monsoon (by the Indian Meteorological Department), if it turns out to be true, will see some revival in rural demand, which will support consumption demand, and make it broad-based, instead of skewed currently,” Sinha said.
(With inputs From PTI)

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