Moscow Attack: Why Russia May Have Ignored Any Terrorist Warnings From the CIA

The attack on the Crocus City concert hall in the Moscow suburbs, which left 137 people dead, has again raised questions about the effectiveness of intelligence in identifying and preventing massive acts of terrorism.

Intelligence about such events is rarely precise. Often it is made up of fragments of information or hearsay, spread across policing and intelligence agencies and across international boundaries. Intelligence analysis is how agencies bring all of these threads together into a picture that makes sense and that allows officials to respond.

Intelligence analysis relies on good and timely information, open minds and officials using it in the right way. As such, it should be surprising that more attacks do not occur.

At the start of March, the US issued a warning about the imminent threat of a mass casualty terrorist attack against large gatherings including concerts, and warned its citizens to avoid such places for the following 48 hours. US National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said information about such a planned attack had also been shared with Russian authorities.